SERC

Kenya races towards a future brimming with people and opportunity. But this very progress hangs in the balance, choked by the fumes of a transport system on the brink. Can Kenya achieve economic lift-off without succumbing to climate catastrophe?

At the forefront of this critical issue, researchers Ignatius Maranga, Dominic Kemei, Thomas Bundi, and Patrick Mwanzia from the Strathmore Energy Research Centre have made significant strides in balancing development with climate goals in Kenya. Their paper, ‘How can emerging economies meet development and climate goals in the transport-energy system? Modelling co-developed scenarios in Kenya using a socio-technical approach,’ published alongside 18 fellow researchers on Science Direct, addresses the complex challenges faced by low- and middle-income countries in adopting clean transport technologies.

According to the paper, Kenya’s transport-energy system is at a crossroads. Rapid urban migration, population growth, and a burgeoning middle class are driving an increasing demand for both passenger and freight transport. Despite the country’s minimal historical responsibility for climate change, with greenhouse gas emissions representing a mere 0.05% of the global total, the need for sustainable solutions is urgent. Transport emissions across Africa have surged by 84% between 2010 and 2016, underscoring the critical importance of sustainable development in this sector.

The researchers engaged 41 local experts and decision-makers to co-develop narrative scenarios for Kenya’s transport-energy future. The result is a strategic decision-support tool, Transport Energy Air Pollution Model (TEAM-Kenya), which integrates these scenarios to aid policymakers at regional, national, and international levels. This tool is pivotal in crafting policies and investment strategies that promote low-carbon economic growth while ensuring equitable access to clean transportation.

Schematic summarising scenario development process used in workshop/Picture Courtesy

The study presents a compelling case for the dual pursuit of development and climate goals in Kenya’s transport-energy system. Key findings include: –

~Public Transport and Electrification: Strong policy support for efficient public transport and the electrification of road vehicles is crucial. Non-motorised transport, such as walking and cycling, must also be promoted to ensure equitable access to services and economic opportunities.

~Electricity Demand: Favorable scenarios anticipate substantial adoption of e-mobility, potentially increasing Kenya’s electricity demand by 5%–56% from 2023 to 2040. This represents a significant 2.7–3.9 times increase in total electricity demand compared to current levels.

~Fiscal Impact: High e-mobility scenarios could reduce taxation revenues from transport fuels by up to 41% but also significantly cut the fuel import bill by up to 69%, saving up to $4.2 billion annually by 2050.

~Emissions and Public Health: The adoption of e-mobility and improved public transport can lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduce harmful air pollution, particularly in urban areas like Nairobi.

The research also underscores the potential for Kenya’s transport-energy system to evolve in a climate-compatible manner, expanding passenger and freight services while maintaining acceptable emissions levels. To achieve this, strong policies supporting public transport and vehicle electrification are essential. The study likewise highlights the need for international development finance to support the infrastructure required for this transition.

The scenarios developed in this project will serve as a foundation for drafting specific policies for Kenya’s transport sector. Strathmore University and the Africa E-mobility Alliance (AFEMA) will maintain and promote TEAM-Kenya, ensuring its adaptation across sub-Saharan Africa.

This pioneering work by these researchers provide a roadmap for Kenya and other emerging economies to navigate the complex interplay between development and climate goals. These economies can lead the way in green growth, forging a path towards cleaner air and economic prosperity. As the world grapples with the climate crisis, such innovative approaches are crucial for securing a sustainable and equitable future for all.

Article written by Stephen Wakhu

In late June, the Strathmore Energy Research Center (SERC), in partnership with Climate Compatible Growth (CCG), Council of Governors (CoG), with support from UK PACT Kenya, hosted a two-day Energy Data Management and Frameworks for Resilient and Inclusive Energy Planning Conference. The conference brought together over 60 participants with over forty being County Energy Directors to discuss strategic ways to integrate the energy planning ecosystem, assess the challenges in this sector and leverage the opportunities in the delivery of the CEPs.

Mr Kizito Wangalwa, Director of Committees and Programmes at the Council of Governors (CoG) kicked off the conference by expressing the CoG’s excitement of collaborating with partners to enable counties to fulfill their mandates as epitomized in the Kenyan Constitution 2010. He emphasised the importance of collaboration between the county and national governments in achieving national goals, aligning with the county government devolved functions and as outlined in the Kenya Vision 2023 strategy document.

Mr. Martin Mutembei, Programs Manager, Strathmore Energy Research Centre (SERC) emphasized the significance of county-level energy planning in achieving integrated energy planning that aligns with national objectives, as outlined in the Draft INEP Framework and Regulations. Moreover, he highlighted the importance of developing County Energy Plans (CEPs), noting that the final document reflects the counties’ aspirations and addresses the existing investment opportunities. Similarly, Eng. Wilson Kariuki, Ministry of Energy and Petroleum Representative, emphasized the necessity for comprehensive energy planning that encompasses sectors beyond electricity, such as agriculture, and called for policy evaluation and formation.

Key Insights from Day 1

Eng. Kihara Mungai, Deputy Director, Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) underscored the critical role of comprehensive county energy plans for national progress, emphasizing the need to include diverse energy sources looking at the Whole Energy System, “There is a lot to be done at the county level in terms of energy that will reflect its progress at the national level. We need an energy plan that includes all forms of energy, including biomass and other emerging renewable sources.”

Associate Prof. Steve Pye from CCG – University College London presented the National Whole Energy Systems Model, built on OSeMOSYS and integrated with IRENA FlexTool, customized for Kenya by LCPDP National Planning team He demonstrated its application in strategy development and its potential in informing county-level energy plans, stressing the importance of aligning local policies with national impacts. Prof. Pye advocated for a data hierarchy-county plans, county-specific data and downscaled national data – to ensure that local priorities are addressed and integrated into the national framework.

Thereafter, attendees participated in breakout sessions to discuss integrating county and national energy planning, model design, data availability, and the sustainability of these approaches. Key challenges identified included the lack of a collaboration framework and resource sharing across boundaries.

Pablo Ramirez Rodriguez of CCG – KTH Royal Institute of Technology, who joined the conference virtually, gave a presentation on designing a data governance framework for energy data sharing in Kenya. Discussions revolved around hypothetical scenarios for information sharing between national and county levels, and among counties themselves. The sessions aimed to establish clear data governance principles and the actors involved in data creation, storage, access, sharing and management.

Day 2 Highlights: County Energy Planning Review, Reflections and Way forward

Day two began with review of county energy planning approaches, with many counties expressing readiness to fulfill their devolved mandates.  There was a consensus on the need to educate county political leaders, such as MCAs and County Executive Committee members, on the broader implications of energy beyond basic solar street lighting. A call was made to have a session to share on the concept of energy system modeling, focussing on energy mix demand, generation, transmission and distribution.

Throughout the day, speakers addressed the path forward in enhancing collaborative energy planning, integrating county and national efforts, refining model designs, ensuring data availability, and fostering sustainability. Mr. Ian Njuguna of CoG and Eng. Wilfread Baya, noted the need to have sections of the currently being drafted Energy Policy capture the clear roles of national and county governments, to avoid roles duplication, ensuring efficient resource sharing and collaboration between national and county governments. Peer learning and capacity building were also highlighted as essential for effective energy planning and implementation.

Dr. Alycia Leonard of CCG – Oxford University presented on incorporating Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI) principles into energy planning. She emphasized the importance of considering the needs of marginalized groups and people with disabilities. Dr. Alycia shared research data from 1,320 participants of a survey undertaken across four Kenyan counties, revealing specific needs during climate events. Breakout sessions explored how to integrate GESI principles into county energy plans giving more context to analysis and proposed opportunities for meeting the identified needs and investment opportunities in the county.

Ms. Robina Abuya from BHC Kenya-UK PACT reaffirmed the support of Kenya-UK PACT, stressing the need to address challenges, build awareness, and improve data collection. She highlighted the importance of collaboration as seen in the workshop where energy sector players including both national and county governments were in the same forum on energy. She did express that the Kenya UK PACT programme was willing to extend any needed technical assistance to either levels of governance through Strathmore University.

Ms. Samia Said of CCG – University College London welcomed the Council of Governors support for energy planning. She outlined a collaborative work plan with CoG and CCG focused on data collection, planning workflows, and developing a prototype data repository. The main objectives include:

1. Co-creating a modeling framework that facilitates county-level model integration into a national-level Whole Energy System Model.

2. Developing a framework for county governments to incorporate GESI and climate resilience considerations into their County Energy Plans (CEPs).

3. Co-developing comprehensive CEP Guidebook available to all.

The conference conclusion set the stage for future energy planning initiatives in this sector. The proposed next steps include establishing an energy data repository for collaborative energy planning and raising awareness among political stakeholders in county energy planning on the inclusive whole energy system model and productive energy utilization to align with counties aspirations.

Article by David Kimathi