Kenya now has a scientific tool for calculating national carbon emissions up to the year 2100 – and the possible sustainability pathways. The Kenya Carbon Emission Reduction Tool (KCERT) allows for identifying and exploring various scenarios for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, including net zero by 2050.
The scenarios are based on accounting for how energy is produced, converted, and consumed showing the extent to which energy technology, behaviour and land-use change might impact the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The tool, developed by Strathmore University in consultation with diverse stakeholders, will be hosted by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum for use by government officials, policymakers, and other stakeholders. It is publicly available and open-source, allowing anyone to explore decarbonisation pathways.
Strathmore Energy Research Centre (SERC) quality engineer, Thomas Bundi, says interested parties can interact with the web tool through the Ministry of Energy portal and download the detailed Excel tool.
SERC is finalising the training of Ministry officials this month. This will pave the way for the Ministry of Energy to host KCERT on its web site.
KCERT is funded by the UK Government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Strathmore University is the implementing institution, with additional support provided by the global engineering firm Mott MacDonald and Imperial College London.
KCERT uses scenario analysis, supported by expert stakeholder engagement activities to forecast and quantify carbon emissions.
SERC consulted hundreds of experts. It held workshops and meetings during the year-long development phase.
Mr Bundi says KCERT was adapted to the local context following the general model structure of the MacKay Carbon Calculator developed by the UK Government to calculate UK carbon emissions and future carbon pathways. Over 60 countries have a Calculator; Kenya’s is the first in East Africa.
KCERT is built in Kenya by Kenyans for Kenya. Kenyan-specific data on energy demand and supply, and social and economic indicators based on extensive literature review were included in conjunction with expert consultation.
The tool covers five energy demand and supply sectors of the economy namely electricity generation, transport, industry, land use, and residential and commercial buildings.
The pathways for reducing emissions are based on a set of parameters or variables called “levers,” which constitute the backbone of KCERT. The levers represent different effort levels or trajectories towards sectoral decarbonisation.
The tool depicts the emission reduction scenarios, based on the country’s ambition. The least attractive scenario is where the country maintains the business-as-usual stance. Other options denote different levels of ambition, including the highest, 4, which promises rapid emission cuts in the run up to 2050, when the country hopes to have become a net zero economy.
The tool is currently available at https://kcert.ilabafrica.ac.ke/
This article was first published in the Sunday Nation under the Climate Action series on 27th August 2023 by eongwae@ke.nationmedia.com
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